New things to look out for...

[vol7ron]

Introduction
It is not news that manufacturers are continually coming out with better processors, faster memory, and smaller components. What is news is how quickly they are advancing and the repercussions from it.

By the end of this and next year, the home computing technology will experience another breakthrough, much like the recent Core2s have had on computers - actually, it will be much more significant, more like the impact the Pentium 3 had on computers around the turn of the millenium.

The List
To help educate here is a simple list I've produced of things to keep in mind. Note that by themselves, these things will vastly improve the speed of the home computer, and together who knows what kind of synergetic impact we could be faced with:
- DDR3 (no it's not the same as the DDR3 that is found on most graphics cards today)
- 32nm production technology (found in oncoming Intel processors)
- Intel "octocore" w/ HyperThreading
- SSD Hard Drives

Summary/Impacts
DDR3 is a debatable improvement. The actual technology has not improved much, in fact some would say it isn't any better at all. The bads that people are saying is that the latency speeds are actually worse, making it take longer (a few nano seconds or less) to find, read, and replace data at certain memory locations. The upside, that brings its critical acclaim, is that the bandwidth has increased, allowing double the information to transfer at a given time. This is very important for new games, graphics, and other media programs that require large amounts of memory, especially, for the newer dynamic OSs. At the same time the memory also requires less power, which generates less heat.

The 32nm technology has actually led to what I have deemed as the "octocore". Pentium 4s were the first CPUs to introduce an additonal logical core. That is, one physical processor acting as two by the use of HyperThreading. The Core 2s were unique because instead of using one processor to act as two, Intel decided they could just make two processors and put them on the same chip, doing away with HyperThreading. Dual Cores moved on to the Quad Cores of today, and tomorrow will be the "octocore." That's right, EIGHT cores on one chip. What does that mean? It means - what's in store for the oncoming software market? Not only will the future generation chips have eight cores, but Intel also announced they will be reintroducing HyperThreading. WHAT!?!? That's eight cores (double what we have to day) acting as two cores a piece. I know some of you might not be so great at math, essentially you'll have a computer able to process 16 threads at once (8 physical processors and 8 logical). Home computers, welcome to mid-level server market.

The ability to process so much data is a feat in itself, but let's not forget to mention that the 33nm technology will also generate less heat, so overclocking will be on the up and up, though not really necessary.

The final thing to mention is the new solid-state drives (SSD), most commonly used in the Apple Air notebooks today. These drives use a technology that don't require any moving parts in them, unlike the multi-tiered hard disks today. This feature eliminates seek times, and other times that you'd find in today's hard drives. Not to mention, they may/may not require a direct power source, depending on the kind and what it's used for. In future home computers, they will probably need one for back-up and data integrity purposes. Really, the benefits are really too great for me to list as they would extend beyond pages. But to name a few, little-to-no power needed (like USB drives today), less heat generated, and they are much faster.

Conclusion
All the technology listed above is available today, aside from the octocore, which will be introduced by the end of this/next year; however, because they are emerging, they are only being directed towards the enthusiast market. It won't be for another 2-3 years before this technology will be affordable and mature to the regular at-home buyer. Though, when it is, the mind can only wander as to what the combination of all these could lead to. Much more virtual worlds (also games and movies), better voice recognition, who knows...

This article was written by vol7ron, who retains all copyright. Please add to his rating if you liked it.

 

[mrmason]

Yeah the growth rate is vicious, it'll all be old news before we know it.

 

[vol7ron]

Well the whole thing has been driven by the ability to produce smaller materials. We quickly went from a 90 -> 65 -> 45 and soon 33.

All I was trying to say is that if you were looking at updating your computer, keep all this in mind because the next "newest and greatest" will be worth the money. Especially with the energy crisis these days.

For those of you that leave your computers plugged in and turned on all day.. this could save some money throughout the year, even with over-clocking. I say plugged in AND turned on, because even if your devices are off, anything plugged into the outlet is still consuming some power.

 

[mac173]

SSD's are available now and can be used in any computer with SATA conections. I have seen them in up to 64 gig size. A couple of those could hold both OS and programs, and you can use a conventional hard drive for backup only. They are made using the same flash memory that is used in finger drives, and need no power to conserve memory, and are extremly reliable and damage resistant. I think they will soon become the standard for PC's.

The ultimate "look out for" is the Quantum Computer. They have already made a few, and solved problems with them, and the development is being backed by government and military funding. With that kind of backing things are going to happen. Princeton, MIT, Oxford, Tufts and UCAL Berkley are some of the schools with ongoing research. Even JPL has looked into it. Thats a little longer into the future then what you talked about however. Best estimates are 15 years for workable computers, but they will boggle the mind with what they can do.

 

[vol7ron]

I think you misinterpreted, or did not read everything I wrote.

Response
The first thing I would like to say is that this is for the at-home buyer. While quantum computers will be nice for large-scale processing, they won't impact the at-home market for a good long while. The best scenario is that the physics engines in games will see a dramatic improvement.

Furthermore, all the above hardware that I've listed is available for purchase, aside from the octocore, which I believe Intel has the codename Nehalem. SSD and DDR3 are available but are not mature enough to be bought. SSDs are going for $15/GB, which is not worth it at the moment, you'd be better buying a 150GB 10,000 RPM SATA VelociRaptor by Western Digital.

I believe behind the scenes, they've even developed a 1TB SSD drive. What does that mean? That means, be expecting the SSDs to be more affordable and available in the future - the whole point of this article. Right now the 64GB SSDs can be bought for around the $1150 USD mark and 32GB is half that, the typical at-home buyer wouldn't be able to afford this and not only that, at the moment they might not understand what an SSD drive is - another purpose of the article.

So in response, these are things to look out for in the short term, if you're considering buying a computer in the next year or so. Once these products become available and more widespread, be expecting the top of the line products in inventory today to come down in price dramatically. So hold off for just a little more if you're expecting to buy a computer tomorrow.

Corrections
By the way, I was wrong in the article though, the original Nehalem will use the 45nm process. The one that is expected to be released in 2009 was formerly called Nehalem-C, but now called Westmere, will use 32nm.

 

[vol7ron]

hope this was interesting.

 

[fireput]

sounds interesting but computer has become a necessity these days. wonder a person who needs a computer is willing to wait for tomorrow.

 

[vol7ron]

The most affordable computer today can do almost the same thing as a mid-level machine. That is the basic web surfing, writing programs, spreadsheets, etc. It might take longer to load in certain situations, but it'll get the easy stuff done. So we're not looking at those buyers.

This was initially meant for the mid-level to high-end computer consumers that will be affected by this. For instance, the serious gamers, the intense movie editors, hardcore graphic designers, etc. They dish out serious cash and this is worth the total wait.

However, it will also affect everyone else. It's something to keep in mind with the hardware you do buy, even if it is low-to-mid level components. Upgradability is still an issue when building a computer. When buying a motherboard look for one that accepts both DDR2 and DDR3, that way you can buy the DDR2 today and pay for the DDR3 when it comes down in price. Look for a motherboard that will be able to socket both processors, no matter if it is available today, or planned to be released tomorrow.