The iPad concept isn't really all that new. What makes it spectacular is the infrastructure (the app store, in particular) and the display, along with the Apple name and marketing. Newer ideas in the UI space certainly help, but the iPad isn't alone in having touchscreen, multitouch or gestures. The timing was good, though, and having a customer base already used to small touchscreen devices (the iPhone and iPod Touch, as well as similar Android and other devices) made the sales easy.
But the iPad is basically a consumption device, and a relatively expensive piece of kit for what it does. Producing content is difficult. Expect consumption devices to become something like the pads in Star Trek TNG and later -- you'll be able to have a stack of them floating around, probably meshable, and treat them much like you'd treat notebooks or pads of paper today.
But to do anything beyond reading and interactive video, you really need something with an input facility. Some folks will need a versatile multimodal input, and for that, something like the
Orkin Design concept rolltop computer would serve. Heck, the flexible OLED display used in the rolltop would also allow a roll-up consumption device that's easier to transport (and cheaper) than the iPad. Still others are going to be mostly text-bound and need something with a real keyboard -- and there's no reason to expect that something small, lightweight and with a keyboard that feels as good as, say, the Thinkpad keyboards can't come along to serve that market as well. (Look for Lenovo in that space -- something smaller and lighter than the X series with the power of the T series, a distributed SSD, similar to the MacBook Air, and a convertible tablet/notebook form factor would be a killer.) And then there's the gamers to think about -- touchscreen is a lousy gaming interface.
The iPad is hardly the end of the line. Content consumers will want things that are lighter, less bulky, easier to carry around (perhaps folded up in a pocket) and nearly disposable. With OLED displays, ARM-type processors and ever-cheaper flash memory, there's no reason
not to expect the iPad to be eclipsed soon. Maybe the newer, better device will also carry the Apple name -- I wouldn't put it past Jony Ives to come up with a shiny new gotta-have-it package.
