Why so many plane crashes?!

[ata.online]

I always tend to feel nervous while travelling via plane.

Just this month, a plane crash in Libya left hundreds dead and now another one in India.
http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2010/05/22/after-mangalore-crash-add-tragedy-to-air-indias-woes/


When people say it is still the safest form of travelling, i just find it hard to believe.
Maybe statistically, yes. But the thought of being burnt to death, is quite frightening.
Obviously, more planes in the air means more crashes.

 

[callumacrae]

There are about 95 000 flights a day. I would say there is a major crash every couple months. = 1 flight per 2 850 000 flights crash. A LOT more cars than that crash, but unfortunately it is very easy to die in a plane crash.

More planes in the air does NOT mean more crashes. How many stories have you heard in the news about planes crashing into each other?

~Callum

 

[carl6969]

When a plane crashes hundreds of people are injured or killed in a single incident which is extremely tragic and the event immediately gets international media attention. However, the number of people injured or killed in plane crashes every year is actually very small when compared to people injured or killed in other means of transportation.

The number of people killed in automobile accidents every year is MUCH greater than the number of people killed in plane crashes. Statically speaking driving or riding in an automobile is is the most dangerous thing most people will ever do in their life. It is even more dangerous than combat. Most of us don't realize that or think about it. And, since automobile fatalities usually involve only a few people, they seldom get any press attention unless a celebrity of some kind is involved.

 

[ata.online]

There are about 95 000 flights a day. I would say there is a major crash every couple months. = 1 flight per 2 850 000 flights crash. A LOT more cars than that crash, but unfortunately it is very easy to die in a plane crash.

More planes in the air does NOT mean more crashes. How many stories have you heard in the news about planes crashing into each other?

~Callum

I have to disagree with you there. If you define a major crash as 50 plus fatalities then it is more than just one every couple of month. More like over 10 major crashes since Jan 2010.
http://www.planecrashinfo.com

"How many stories have you heard in the news about planes crashing into each other?"

More planes in the air does mean more crashes. It doesn't need to be involved with another plane. It could be a technical failure or pilot incompetence. Having said that, there have been a few head on collisions back in the 80's and 90's.

 

[ata.online]

When a plane crashes hundreds of people are injured or killed in a single incident which is extremely tragic and the event immediately gets international media attention. However, the number of people injured or killed in plane crashes every year is actually very small when compared to people injured or killed in other means of transportation.

The number of people killed in automobile accidents every year is MUCH greater than the number of people killed in plane crashes. Statically speaking driving or riding in an automobile is is the most dangerous thing most people will ever do in their life. It is even more dangerous than combat. Most of us don't realize that or think about it. And, since automobile fatalities usually involve only a few people, they seldom get any press attention unless a celebrity of some kind is involved.

Although according to the stats that may be true, i tend to feel safer on earth. One reason some people hate flying is the lack of control they have.

 

[carl6969]

Although according to the stats that may be true, i tend to feel safer on earth. One reason some people hate flying is the lack of control they have.

I agree with you on this point. I do not fear flying in any way. To the contrary, I actually enjoy flying and flew on commercial airlines frequently before 911. I have been avoiding air travel post 911, not because I have any fear for my safety, but simply because I really don't want to deal with the new (and necessary) security requirements. I do not feel any safer on the ground, but I do feel a higher degree of comfort when I am in control of my own vehicle.

 

[asiapress]

i plan to build a site about plane crashes

i plan to build a site about plane crashes

 

[carl6969]

Re: i plan to build a site about plane crashes

i plan to build a site about plane crashes

That sounds interesting. I would probably visit such a site every now and then. There are one or two television shows I watch which attempt to analyze what went wrong during disasters such as plane crashes. I find them interesting.

 

[priyaa161]

When a plane crashes hundreds of people are injured or killed in a single incident which is extremely tragic and the event immediately gets international media attention. However, the number of people injured or killed in plane crashes every year is actually very small when compared to people injured or killed in other means of transportation.

The number of people killed in automobile accidents every year is MUCH greater than the number of people killed in plane crashes. Statically speaking driving or riding in an automobile is is the most dangerous thing most people will ever do in their life. It is even more dangerous than combat. Most of us don't realize that or think about it. And, since automobile fatalities usually involve only a few people, they seldom get any press attention unless a celebrity of some kind is involved.

So now you are calculating probability. Being a science student, I must tell you that probability is not calculated in that way and so you can't say that flight is much more safe than traveling with your automobile.
If you really wanna calculate, then travel as frequently with plane as you travel with your car. (not possible in daily life) and then compare how many times you come near to death in both the cases.

I want to say that we don't know when our misfortune will lead us a accident but if we are with our car then at least we can hope for a less injury than on a plane.

 

[carl6969]

So now you are calculating probability. Being a science student, I must tell you that probability is not calculated in that way and so you can't say that flight is much more safe than traveling with your automobile.

I was not attempting scientifically calculate probability. I am certainly not qualified to do that. My point simply was, (and is), that the number of people killed or injured in automobile accidents each year is far greater than the number of people killed or injured in plane accidents / crashes each year.

I want to say that we don't know when our misfortune will lead us a accident but if we are with our car then at least we can hope for a less injury than on a plane.

Good point. One is less likely to be injured or killed in an automobile accident than an airplane accident / crash. But there are far more automobile accidents each year than there are airplane accidents, so would it not be logical to conclude that automobile travel is far more dangerous than airplane travel?


If you really wanna calculate, then travel as frequently with flight as you travel with your car. (not possible in daily life) and then compare how many times you come near to death in both the cases.

I want to say that we don't know when our misfortune will lead us a accident but if we are with our car then at least we can hope for a less injury than on a plane.[/QUOTE]

 

[priyaa161]

I was not attempting scientifically calculate probability. I am certainly not qualified to do that. My point simply was, (and is), that the number of people killed or injured in automobile accidents each year is far greater than the number of people killed or injured in plane accidents / crashes each year.

It was not any offense, carl. I'm too not qualified to do that. I'm sure I'm less qualified than you.

But to make it clear take a sample (lets take a year). How many times you travel with airplane in a year? For me its zero so I can't take myself here. Suppose 20 times. But you travel more than 20 times with your car in less than 10 days. (not for that long distance but at least travel). After a year when you don't face any crash you think that to travel with air is less risky but if you think closely then You'll come to know that even with automobile you had traveled 20 times and didn't face any accident.

yes, to travel with air is less risky, I admit but if we ignore small accidents and care for only accident which involves death then I'll surely go for ground way.

 

[carl6969]

It was not any offense, carl. I'm too not qualified to do that. I'm sure I'm less qualified than you.

No offense taken. No worries. I enjoy intelligent debates and you are frequently a worthy adversary in such debates :smile:
And you have made some very good points in this thread.

Carl
01000011 01000001 01010010 01001100

 

[fractalfeline]

<snip>
How many times you travel with airplane in a year? For me its zero so I can't take myself here. Suppose 20 times. But you travel more than 20 times with your car in less than 10 days. (not for that long distance but at least travel).
<snip>

That reminds me of a funny statistic I ran across. I forget the details of it, but the gist was: the majority of people die within 20 minutes of their homes. Doesn't necessarily mean that houses radiate a vibe of bad mojo, just that more people live their daily lives for the majority of their time within 20 minutes of their home. If I understand your argument correctly, more people travel by car than by plane, thus more deaths due to cars? If more people travelled by plane, would it even out over time?

It's just funny, because every so often you hear about a drunk pilot on the news. DWI for plane pilots?!

 

[carl6969]

the majority of people die within 20 minutes of their homes.

I love the very small town I live in. Can drive from one end of town to the other in less than ten minutes. Probably one traffic accident every 3 months and those are almost always minor / non fatal.

If more people travelled by plane, would it even out over time?

Absolutely. That would change everything.

 

[lemon-tree]

Something that makes planes a lot safer than cars is that the requirements to gain even a PPL is very strict and requires a higher level of expertise in most aspects than your average driving license. A CPL, which is required to fly for an airline, requires huge monetary input and a real dedication and therefore means that commercial pilots have many hours of experience, both in real aircraft and in simulators. This means that every aircraft in the sky is being flown by one or more experienced pilots and not by drunken fools in their first car who have no respect for any other road users (I for one haven't heard any of those stories of drunken pilots, I don't doubt it happens but not to the extent that drunk driving occurs).
Of course, aircraft are considerably more complex than any car and have a lot more systems that can fail. However, they also have a greater redundancy than cars, as - for example - all airliners can return to the airport with one engine or if the hydraulics fail there a manual overrides. A few of the crashes we have seen recently have been caused by general malfunctions, but a lot have been caused by adverse weather conditions, which we cannot control. So flying will always have this inherent danger; we can try to minimise its impacts, but there will always be a factor of uncertainty. After all, we were never meant to fly

As for calculating the probability, whichever way you do it there will always be a skew in favour of one mode of transport. You could calculate by number of passengers, number of vehicles, distance travelled, hours travelled etc etc. Basically, each of those will give a different answer that could be used in either argument. The best solution could be to average the averages, but that just sounds horrendous in a statistical sense for giving an answer that actually represents the answers.

 

[carl6969]

I for one haven't heard any of those stories of drunken pilots, I don't doubt it happens but not to the extent that drunk driving occurs

I recollect one or two new stories over the last couple of years where alcohol was detected on the breath of commercial pilots as they were preparing to board and fly aircraft. They were stopped and replacement flight crews immediately called in. I am reasonably sure that commercial pilots are subject to rules similar to commercial drivers in this respect in that "any detectable amount of alcohol" is illegal.

but a lot have been caused by adverse weather conditions, which we cannot control.

While we cannot control the weather pilots have the right and responsibility to avoid potentially dangerous weather both during flight as well as takeoffs and landings. There have been more than a few disastrous crashes caused because a commercial pilot decided to risk landing in a thunderstorm instead of diverting to another airport with better weather conditions. Pilots are under pressure from the airlines to arrive at the designated airport on time and passengers would be inconvenienced by diverting, but it is certainly a better alternative to a crash landing.

 

[eliasr]

Oldies but NOT goodies.

The crysis in the sector keep some old planes working.

 

[carl6969]

Oldies but NOT goodies.
The crysis in the sector keep some old planes working.

My understanding is that aircraft lifespan is determined by the manufacturer and based on the number of takeoffs and landings. Of course maintenance is also an important factor in the useful safe lifespan of a particular aircraft.

 

[fractalfeline]

@ lemon-tree
I suppose the higher levels of training would tend to counter-balance, but pilots are not immune to the human condition, things like addictions and fatigue and emotional distress. I do hope, as a matter of professional behavior, they aren't texting, talking on their cell phone, or getting blowjobs while flying But for each one pilot that screws up like that, the passenger death/injury count goes up compared to each one car driver. Plane crashes are more lethal per single passenger than car crashes per single passenger too (ie you're more likely to survive a car crash than a plane crash). Perhaps the added weight and pressure would help keep pilots motivated to keep a professional standard of behavior?

 

[carl6969]

but pilots are not immune to the human condition, things like addictions and fatigue and emotional distress. I do hope, as a matter of professional behavior, they aren't texting, talking on their cell phone

One would hope that professional pilots would condition themselves to get adequate rest between flights and stay focused on the job at hand while on the flight deck. However, not very long ago, a commercial flight flew right past the destination airport and had to turn around and go back. Repeated messages from air traffic controllers were apparently unheard. It has been speculated that these pilots were distracted by laptop computers, having a conversation that distracted them from properly navigating the plane and communicating with ATC, or possibly even napping.